And The Contradiction Continues- II

February 24' 2009, various news channels and websites began flashing news of Standard & Poor's downgrade of India's sovereign rating from "stable" to "negative"......Moody's might be the next to follow suit.

Reasons cited by S&P for the move-‘India’s fiscal position has deteriorated to a level that is not sustainable in the medium term’. One of their credit analyst went on to say- "We expect the deficit to remain high at 11.1 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2009-2010. The fiscal deficit could widen if the next government implements another stimulus package."

Elite analysts from the much maligned investment banking fraternity were quick to offer their take on the downgrade- all of them justifies it......... I have no problem in their justification of this downgrade................After all who cares about their analysis.......... "Lehman", "Bear Stearns", "Sub-Prime", "Madoff" or "Standford" are telling examples of their capabilities and analysis.......At times, I wonder who will score more in terms of the understanding of "basic common economic sense"- a common labourer or a rickshaw-puller on Indian roads or highly paid but intellectually bankrupt analyst community........no doubt as to who will be the eventual winner.......our common man understands economics better, does that roadside vegetable vendor rings some bells!!!!

Coming back to the downgrade, I am still waiting to hear S&P's views about Doctor Obama's budget.......released 2 days after India's downgrade.......I was trying to add up the total number of Zeroes in $1.75 trillion federal deficit.......I sincerely hope S&P knows that this $1.75 trillion estimate is just $250 billion more than what was estimated few days back!........If this not enough, then read this -"The $1.75 trillion deficit projected for this year would represent 12.3 percent of the gross domestic product, double the previous post-war record of 6 percent in 1983, when Ronald Reagan was president, and the highest level since the deficit totaled 21.5 percent of GDP in 1945, at the end of World War II."

Wonder, if above calls for any downgrade for US!!!!!!! Or if 11.1% of GDP (India's projected fiscal deficit) is worse than 12.3% of GDP(US's projected fiscal deficit) .........perhaps lower the GDP, bigger the problem!!!! OK fine....then what about the fiscal condition of Europe-shouldn't they be downgraded?? ...........It is growth stupid...........economic growth contraction is a sure shot pill for no downgrade......US and Europe is contracting while India is not, don't you know their economy is still growing ......can't you understand this?

Stupid....it is not the economic fundamentals that decide the ratings.....it is the names of the agencies.... Consider this-Standard and Poor use its rating lever to lift the "Standard" and hit the so called "Poor".......It depends on the "mood" of the Moody's as to who to downgrade and who not.......Fitch has a hitch when it comes to informed judgement.....

Last but not the least, here are two reports filed by "BusinessWeek" while reporting on the fiscal condition in India and US, albeit the context is different....Decide for yourself

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D96JBAU00.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

& http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/eyeonasia/archives/2009/02/sp_downgrades_i.html

And the contradictions continues.......

PS- I have deliberately used "Dr" as a prefix to Obama because most of the people look up to him as someone who has a cure for every problem.....I have my own doubts.........In my views he has done what he could have done-to create history by becoming the first Black President.....and his moment is gone.......Don't agree with me? Go back in history and we have numerous examples......Rajiv Gandhi of 84????

And, The Contradiction Continues-I

"How long can I continue to look for reasons to feel good about the contradictions that surround us on a day to day basis?”- is a question I often ask myself ...........more so after reading about the incidents in "Swat Valley" and "S&P downgrade of India's ratings"-latter one arising out of my conversations with my friend Rakesh...

Firstly, recent incidents in the Pakistan’s Swat Valley not only horrify me but also confuse me. I am confused because Swat, often labelled as Pakistan's Switzerland (I personally hate these "labelling comparisons" as all they do is to denigrate the "compared" (Swat) in front of "compared with" (Switzerland) by limiting their description/qualitative potential- more often only east/developing world gets these labels- would anyone call Switzerland as Europe's Swat?....how can anyone justify Kalidas to be called as "India's Shakespeare", even when he precedes Shakespeare by more than 5 centuries or Gandhi as India's Martin Luther King & not otherwise) and part of NWFP was the region that gave us a leader like Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan-someone, who single-handedly raised an army of apostles of peace-Khudai Khidmatgar and had a huge following amongst the residents of the region. So, how, when and what converted this peaceful and secular but an innately independent region into a hotbed of militancy and fundamentalism? Answer lies in nowhere but Jinnah's two-nation theory and America's cruel foreign policy.

A deeply secular NWFP region with in the realms of Pakistan would have defeated the concept or very idea of Pakistan. Hence, the establishment and its bigger nemesis-army, started a systematic nurturing and nourishment of fundamentalist forces as a counter force to peaceful tribal’s by playing on the innate sense of independence that prevails amongst the various ethnic tribes of NWFP region. This process of de-secularisation reached its nadir at the height of cold war....as American policymakers assisted by its Pakistani counterparts began using the people of this region in its bid for supremacy in the world order against Soviets.

An impoverished Afghanistan became the only real battleground for obvious reasons. I really marvel the astute policies of Western policymakers as they always manages to play their dirty games in the far-away lands...else how would you justify no battlegrounds in Europe’s neighbourhood of Romania, Hungry, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria or a larger Eastern bloc as reasons for war in Afghanistan were also present there.....

Once war got over, everyone left this region’s to its fate. The fundamentalist monster ably supported by the petro dollars continued to nourish itself until that ghastly attack on common man in US helped world sit up and take notice. Now, US is back in Afghanistan fighting with the people it once helped raise into a force....

This endless saga of contradictions still continues and will perhaps continue forever in the form of India and Pakistan. More so, because Muslims in post partition India have and will continue to enjoy constitutionally guaranteed fuller rights to observe their religious faith, peaceful life, freedom and relative prosperity as compared to their respective counterparts in a country that was carved out of India as a supposed home to all the pre-independence Indian Muslims. No wonder, Indian Muslim populace continues to outnumber Pakistan’s.......Two-nation theory has been comprehensively defeated yet the contradiction in Pakistan continues...........

The endgame is nowhere in sight. If there is one, then that horrifies me........because horrific is the thought of possible danger of Pak nukes falling in the hands of fundamentalists....and if and when that happens, many contradictions will get wiped off from the face of this earth forever.....but at a severe cost.

So, how can we wriggle ourselves out of this current crisis? Think out of the box-may be do a "Kautilya"; meaning.........float an idea for re-unification of India and Pakistan!!!!! But where will we get our Chandragupta Mauryas from ???? Perhaps in our social scientists, political commentators or economists...But what will they do? Simple.............they will study the idea and come out with various costs-benefit scenarios and possibilities..........or, they will toss up new refreshing ideas into the air.....a few of them might get awards for their work......and if successful, a "Nobel Peace Prize" as well.............. Trust me, beauty of this entire experiment is that it has no human cost to it........though it is an altogether different matter that human life comes very cheap in this region..........Not for someone who looses his/hers loved ones........... it is about time that we begin to work on these contradictions.............to make them go away...........so that, 1/5th of humanity gets to see and experience a much better world for themselves and future generations..........world and humanity at large will benefit the most.......

If this is a case of "hoping against hope".......or a desire to be labeled as a day-dreamer .....or to give all the sceptics and the doubting Thomases a reason to laugh out loud...........Certainly not.....Don't modern day Europe offers us that hope?.........Arguers will argue that the situation is not comparable......But we must not forget that even today's India and Pakistan share much more commonalities than what Europeans ever did at any point of time in their history. Besides, we are not that much divided as they were historically..........For confirmation, talk to any visiting ordinary Pakistani or an Indian and everyone will have hundreds of separate stories of mutual affection and respect to share.......On my part, I did put up this question to my brother after his Pakistan visit; and trust me he had all the nice things to say about that country and it's people....even about their immigration officers!

Think and propagate...........

S&P downgrade part to follow..........

Three Weeks of Contradictions

It’s been 3 weeks since I updated my blog last and the reason lie in the apparent contradictions, I found myself face to face with, time and again over that period. How ironical that it is those very contradictions that ultimately provide food and fodder to introspect, think and write. It happened so many times, when I began writing and did not continue as my motivation level and conviction in my thought process was at an abysmally low level.

But then, two events of last week brought me back to my usual self..First one was the last week’s request from my neighbour. It was the evening of 10th February when Rohit, my next door neighbour checked on my blood group; “B(+ve) it is”, I replied. He asked me if I can give my blood platelets to his friend’s mother, who was in the hospital fighting the last stage of blood cancer and I agreed. Next day, I went to hospital twice; first for blood tests and later for undergoing the separation process of platelets and plasma from my blood. Needless to say that the amazing feeling of doing something worthwhile was simply unexplainable despite the pain that I had to bear due to my weak veins. In fact, the doctor had to take the needles out as veins of my left hand swelled with an unbearable pain. Thankfully, my veins of the other hand helped complete the process. But the real learning lied elsewhere.

While I was filling in the donation form, the doctor asked me the name of the patient. I told him, “I don’t know her name”- an answer for which the doctor was not ready. But, what he said afterwards was simply awesome.....He said- "It is nothing but the good deeds of the lady that is making people, completely unknown to her, come and give her blood when she needs it most”... That comment was very deep and true and will stay with me forever.....Unfortunately, I just heard from Rohit that she is no more. It was very sad to hear that but then I am sure that her deeds will continue to help her wherever she is now...I pray to God to give her loved ones strength and courage to bear this unbearable pain and irreparable loss.

Second incident took place as as recently as previous Saturday, while we were at the engagement ceremony of Sunil (my wife-Bobby’s brother). I noticed that Mamta didi’s (my wife’s elder sister) sister-in-law left the venue abruptly with her husband. Later, when I enquired about the reason with Mamta didi, she told me that Anil, their son who is an army officer has suffered a major accident. As if it was not enough, his wife was not with him so the flow of news from Siliguri, his place of posting was not proper. Their other son left for Siliguri as soon as he heard about the accident but he would not reach there until next afternoon. Whatever little information they were getting from Army sources was not sufficient for them or for that matter any other parent in a similar situation. It was then I decided to do something about it even after knowing that Siliguri, until that moment is just a city name for me.

Soon, I had with me the contact details of three persons; I knew that one of them would be able to help me get the details. I was right as, Dhruv; my friend-Rajat’s cousin posted with Indian army in Jammu got me the complete detail of the accident and the injury suffered by Anil in less than 15 minutes. He further gave me a telephone number of one service-man that Anil’s parents could call to check his condition. I apprised Anil’s family of whatever I heard from Dhruv and also gave them the number to call at. I am sure, confirmation of the facts via different source must have brought them relief and satisfaction....

Two quick lessons in general- “Good deeds always stand by you when you need them most” and “A sense of responsibility not only help others but also help resurrect one’s own conviction and faith in his/her abilities’.

Personally, it made me feel good as these two incidents not only reinforced my faith in the beauty of human relationships; but strengthened it further. No wonder, I draw much of my satisfaction and contentment from those very relationships.

Though, it is an altogether different matter that same Saturday night interaction with one of our relative couple (who, I always felt very close to until an awful incident last summer) didn't go down well with me. Not because, I was found lacking in showing my respect towards them despite whatever they did to my father last summer; but simply because of a realisation that modern education system does not offer any guarantee of a good human behaviour of reciprocation. To my extreme surprise, only word that I could hear during those 40 seconds of interaction was a cold reply to my greeting......I could do nothing but smiled at myself.....as I am not going to let stray incidents like this desist me from investing in my relationships...